Progressive Sports Betting System

In the world of sports betting as well as other gambling endeavors, the key to long-term success is enshrined in good bankroll management. While there exist more than a few methods out there that could prove worthwhile, the most fundamentally sound strategy that should be prioritize is progressive betting.

What is progressive betting? Progressive betting is basically when you stick to a set amount for each bet depending on the size of your bankroll, then increasing the amount of money per bet as your profit grows from the starting point. Identical methods are being used alongside many instructional orders on other gambling-like games like craps, blackjack. The recommendation usually varies wildly depending on the author but I personally advocate a more conservative stance than the majority of these authors simply because they tend to endorse a too risky and unsafe strategy once you’ve managed to grow your bankroll.

When betting on sports, discipline does not come easy to implement for a sports bettor. It is a skill that must be conquered for you to have long-term success in sports betting, as long as you took the time and effort to establish handicapping insight that has demonstrated a consistent winning record.

Let me give you an example that utilizes an effective conservative approach while at the same time, allows you to keep good discipline. Keep in mind that when gambling, a certain amount of swings will always be involved, therefore, it is crucial to be able to withstand losing streaks that could erase any profit you previously made alongside your initial bankroll money you started with.

Let’s say you begin with a bankroll of $2,000 in which you could have probably deposit that money in a reputable online sports-book or keep this money set aside for your sports betting future activity. In that case, the recommended unit size should be $44 to win $40 for each game which amount to about 2% of your bankroll in play. More than a few experts would proceed in suggesting you to risk 4 or 5 percent but the risk with a higher figure will be the limitation of your flexibility should you hit a prolonged losing streak. It may eventually take time to build up your bankroll, but you should always remember that sports betting is more like running a marathon, not a print.

With everything stated above, let us say that you’re averaging 1 bet per day for a full year, and ended up with a very respectable overall record of 210 wins and 150 loses. After taking into account house juice for each bet, you are left ahead with about 50 units or an additional $2,000 on top of your initial investment. With that conclusion, your initial bankroll of $2,000 would have been doubled in a span of a year to $4,000.

Now that your bankroll is standing at $4,000, you could ante up your bet to $88 from the previous initial bet size of $44. So you will basically retain the same 2% of your bankroll put into play but you will now be yielding twice the amount of profit that you started with. Logic should take hold with the fact that since you were able to double your starting bankroll of $2000, you would have probably achieved a proven track record as for your betting performance, thus allowing you to risk even more of your bankroll.

With everything being said, you still do not want to go crazy here and put all your profit at risk by increasing your bet size too much. Instead of going big, a conservative unit size bump of about 3% would yield a much better win percentage while still having some type of protection against cold streaks to fall back on. In this case, you may start entering bets of $120 to win $110 for each game which is just about 3 percent of your precious bankroll.

If you decide to use the 3% method, all you’ll need to do is clear about 17 units to make your next $2,000 as opposed to the 50 units that would have been necessary to profit the same amount when you started.

As soon as you get more comfortable with this skill set and start seeing consistent positive results, the next step could be to start rating the quality of your picks and then incorporate it into a big strategy that could improve your betting system.

Let me give you another example to clarify things further. Let’s say your standard unit size is $44 per bet but on certain occasion, you feel more confident about certain games. In this case, you can announce that your confidence level for this particular game is so high that you will bet “2 units” instead of the original and standard “1 unit.” That should mean your wager would have to increase from $44 to $88 because it is now a 2 unit play. It is of course important to keep record of your larger unit size so that you know whether it is worth increasing your betting size. Unless you can demonstrate a winning rate of about 65% on those high confidence 2 unit size bet, it would not be worth going through with it. At this point, it would be best to keep it simple and fully go back to the original 1 unit size bet for all bets.

So remember, you should not force yourself to increase the size of your bet if the amount of money that would be needed makes you uncomfortable. Keep a performance track record so you know whether to discontinue certain part of your betting strategy. You will surely gain more experience and confidence as you go and this will allow you to be able to analyze your situation and make the needed fix when it requires it.

In the meantime, the best strategy that I would recommend to someone who is just getting started is to keep their wager at a consistent unit size, specially if it is showing a winning rate. There is simply no need to over complicate things too soon and risk losing it all because you got too greedy.

Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

Sports Betting Strategies System, Sports Book Tips

How much would you value this gift, how much money would you invest when placing a bet? Predicting sports picks is an art that takes an incredible amount of research and analysis in order to find the winning selections. An unbelievable amount of data is collected, from statistical data to environmental data, once this precious information is gathered, it is entered into a computer software program to aid making the process of establishing the best possible game result. But that is not all, once the first part of the equation is compiled and completed (data entered in the software program), the human element is also added to the equation. The coaching staff, the location of the game being played, players injury reports are also taken under consideration and many other factors that can affect the turnout of the match or the game. Finally when the second part of the equation is added, a more precise and accurate prediction can then be taken regarding the outcome of an event.

Betting online is a very similar form of gaming or gambling, There are many risks associated with sports betting, you have to be reasonable about it, no body really knows what’s in the bag so pay the mortgage first along with the rest of your bills, a good idea is to put some money aside for the rainy days, of course everyone has to enjoy life and spend a bit of fun time following one’s passion, so with that being said, in sports betting like any type of gambling , the better has to take a chance, make his decision based on intelligent research to minimize his or her loss. Any form of gambling has its risks and probabilities. Is today your lucky day , you will never know until you try.