Avoid the 7 Biggest Mistakes New Craps Players Make

Many new craps players fail to realize that winning is a process. Set forth below are the 7 biggest mistakes made by new craps players.

The first mistake a new craps player makes is to fail to set a goal of how they want to win. Most people who go to Vegas (and the craps table) have the attitude that they will take with so much money and when they lose, they will stop. This is a defeatist attitude. The attitude we have is that we will win so much money and then we will stop. Depending on the size of our bankroll, we will usually set a goal to win $200 per hour. This is discussed by John Patrick in his book Advanced Craps.

The second mistake made by a new craps player is failing to understand the game, i.e., the probabilities for each number being made. Just because you may know how to place a bet, it does not mean you know how to win. Often a new player will start by winning and think it is a simple game. They increase their bet size only to have the table turn cold and lose it all. New craps players must be aware that the game of craps is based on streaks. Sam Graftstein discusses this in detail in his book The Dice Doctor Revised and Expanded.

The third mistake is not having an adequate bankroll. Craps is a game based on streaks. As such, you cannot and will not win on every bet – – you will have loses. Too often a player does not have an adequate bankroll for the size bets he is making or sets an unrealistic goal of how much to win. If you have a $500 bankroll, it is difficult to set a goal to win $1,000. It does happen, but only when people are lucky. When loses do occur, he may not have enough money to make bets and miss out on a hot shooter. Author Frank Scoblette discusses this in his book Beat the Craps out of the Casinos.

The fourth mistake is drinking while playing. If you are going to play craps, then you can either play to have fun or play to win. It is difficult to do both. New craps players sometimes get intrigued with the free booze and drink too much to concentrate on what they are doing. I have friends who travel to Vegas with grandiose ideas of winning big. I have heard them discuss that one or several of them were doing well until they started drinking. If you are going to drink and party – – wait until after you have left the craps table, not during.

The fifth mistake made by many new players is lacking discipline. Many new players will press their bets when they are winning. While this may work some of the time, too often the new player will have a lot of money on the table when the dreaded 7 appears. You need to take some of your winnings off the table. Sam Graftstein discusses this in detail in his book The Dice Doctor Revised and Expanded.

I was dealing craps for an entertainment company at a private residence for a person’s surprise birthday party. One of the players was setting the dice. Apparently he took lessons on how to be a precision shooter from Beau Parker, a/k/a Dice Coach. At first he was having long rolls and doing extremely well (Beau is an excellent teacher on how to set and influence the dice). This person, however, kept pressing his bets. He rarely took his winnings down. I asked him why he left his winnings on the table because I know personally that Dice Coach does not follow that betting strategy. His explanation was that he kept his bets up until he had a feeling. Within a short time he lost his entire “bankroll.” Good thing he was playing with pretend money instead of real money. Had he had any semblance of a betting strategy he would have done quite well.

The sixth mistake made by new players is not paying attention. New players tend to forget the bets they make, where the dealer placed their bets and also to pick up their winnings. If you forget to pick up your winnings it is considered a bet. The casinos’ policy is “if it lays, it plays.” At a crowded table, the game of craps moves quickly.

The seventh mistake made by new craps players is to believe that a craps system will work. While all systems work some of the time, none work all of the time. So be careful at the tables. You never know if the system will work for hours, days or even longer.

By: David Udjat, Walk Away Craps

The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!

In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.

Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win – but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) – to win each game – you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate – but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be ‘short’ and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter – and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value – as they are not the popular betting choice.

When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or ‘evens’ (1/1).

As an example we set up a ‘coin flipping’ betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the ‘true odds’ or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.

The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the ‘average bettor’ does not really understand ‘value’, he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since ‘heads’ is winning – he wants to bet on heads.

The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the ‘true odds’ of success are 1/1.

How to Be Lucky When Gambling in a Casino, Poker Game, Lottery Or Horse Racing Using Proven Methods

Luck is the most important part of gambling, as anyone who has spent any time in a casino, at the race track betting on horse racing, playing the lottery, poker, blackjack or any game of chance can tell you. Some people seem to be luckier than others and demonstrate the truth behind the old saying, “I’d rather be lucky than good.” How true that is. Good luck will get you through almost anything and no matter how deep you may appear to be in the soup, you may come out smelling like a rose if you have good fortune.

Of course, most people believe that it is impossible to change destiny or fortune so it is impossible to control your luck, but that may not actually be the case. Science has demonstrated that there are times when people win more and lose less. In his book, “The Conscious Universe,” Professor Dean Radin analyzed the results of four years of data from casinos. He was looking for a correlation between the phases of the moon, strength of the Earth’s geomagnetic fields, and casino payout percentages. During the full moon the Earth’s geomagnetic field is usually at its weakest. Professor Radin believes there may be some connection between the Earth’s magnetic fields, the moon, human psychic ability, and gambling.

One scientific study that Prof. Radin mentions in his book did demonstrate that people seem to be more psychic during the full moon, then their abilities seem to wane during the quarter moons and increase again during the new moon. This fluctuation in psychic ability seems to also follow luck because four years of casino data showed that payouts increased at the time of the full moon and decreased at other times for most casino games studied. Perhaps our intuition or psychic ability really does help us to win, whether it is picking the slot machine that is about to pay out, or knowing whether to hit a 13 at the blackjack table, or which horse will win the race. Poker players can certainly use intuition to their benefit.

The conclusion he reached was that if gamblers avoided the casinos during the quarter moons and gambled around the time of the full moon, they would decrease their losses or even win a profit. Of course, these are just generalizations and should not be considered an inducement to gamble, but they show promise for really understanding how to be lucky.

Lotteries showed a different trend. It appears that Pick 3 style lotteries pay out more during the times of the quarter moons and lower payouts during the full moon. Fluctuations in the magnetic fields of the earth, once again, seemed to have an effect. While the phase of the moon or strength of the earth’s fields will not guarantee you a winner, it may be a good idea to start making your winning and losing days on a calendar and watch where they fall according to the moon’s phases.

Other studies have shown that when people have a positive attitude and expect to win, they actually do win more often. That makes sense, doesn’t it? If you expect to win you may make choices that will have a positive effect. For instance, if you are in a casino and looking for a blackjack table and expect to lose, you won’t be too fussy about which table you sit at. But if you expect to win you may take more time selecting the table and finding one where the gamblers seem to be happier and smiling, meaning they are winning and the table is paying out better. You may not do it consciously, but you could do this and other things subconsciously just because you have a winning attitude and expect to win. We make a lot of choices when gambling whether we are at the race track betting on horse racing or choosing a place or game in a casino or even selecting lottery numbers.

So my advice to you is that you keep track of your winning and losing days and the phases of the moon. Also, keep a positive attitude. If you expect to win, perhaps it is a good day to take a chance, but if you expect to lose or just don’t feel lucky, maybe it would be better to save your money until you feel the earth’s fields, moon, or just plain old luck are working for you.

The Lottery Secret Formula – Does it Really Exist?

Are you in search of the lottery secret formula? Have you continued to play the lottery with little to no luck? Do you ever feel like you are just giving your money away by playing the lotto? If you said yes to these, then you have probably felt like I have. I to, was looking for the lottery secret formula. I have always dreamed on winning the big JACKPOT and quitting my job. The feeling of knowing you no longer have to worry about money. I would always tell myself why couldn’t that be me? But now I no longer dream of winning the big JACKPOT.

You might be asking yourself why do I no longer dream about winning the lotto. I mean who wouldn’t want to win the lottery? Well about 1 year ago I took a big pay cut at my job. So as bad as this was, I at least still had a job. I use to play the lotto at least 4-5 times a day. I would love the excitement of knowing that any day I could possibly win the lottery. But I was tight on money at the time, so I figured I would stop for a while.

About 3 months after that a friend of mine asked me how I was with the lotto, since he knew I loved to play. The reason he was asking me was because he told me he saw a book online that supposedly has the lottery secret formula, and would show you how to win the lottery. At first I didn’t believe it, but figured I would read what he had as entertainment. So after going online and reading a little more on this book I was intrigued. I decided I would by the book with my next paycheck. Even if it wasn’t true the book was pretty cheap so if anything I figured it would be entertainment for me. So when I started reading I was anxious to see if what this lottery secret formula was.

Like I said before I didn’t have a lot of money at the time so I was not able to play the lotto as much as I wanted but, I ended up splitting tickets with my friend. The first week after buying the lotto we each decided to put in 10 each. This way we could test out the lottery secret formula. To both of our surprise we ended up winning money that week. We won a total of 83 dollars, which mean between the two of us we had a profit of $63. This was great because it gave us more money to play the following week.

The next week we figured we would each put $20 this way we could improve our odds. After we saw the lotto drawing we could believe we won again. We didn’t win the lotto, but at least we made some money. We ended up getting $92 dollars that week. My friend and I continued playing each week, and would lose every once in a while, but at the end we were always up.

Then about 7 weeks ago when we were playing the Fantasy 5, we ended up hitting all 5 numbers. When we saw this we couldn’t believe it. The Jackpot was split by 2 winning tickets that day, which resulted in each winning ticket receiving about $106,000. My wife was so happy we won that she could not stop crying. This jackpot was more the enough to make up for my pay cut I had received.

So the reason I told you before that I no longer dream of winning the big lotto jackpot is because I expect to win it. After putting these strategies to the test I have won countless times and even managed to win the Fantasy 5. Now my next goal is to win the Florida lottery. Hopefully I will be writing a story about how I won the Florida lotto in the near future.

Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.